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Let’s take a look at some of the racing around the country.

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Pace Forecasts change as scratches are announced.  Check back at THOROPACE.COM for an update. If fields stay intact, the following races have pace dynamics that make them good wagering considerations.

Tampa Race 7:

Pace Forecast: +15.3

Most Likely Leader: 4

#4 Donya’s Magic may be the controlling speed.  Would like even better if #2 One Night Stand scratches.

Zia Park Race 6:

Pace Forecast: -14.0

Most Likely Leader: #5

A soft pace is expected, and favorite #5 Samurai Charm may be the quickest of these early.

Turf Paradise Race 7:

Pace Forecast: +20.9

Most Likely Leader: 5

#10 Full Vision closed into a speed-friendly pace in last and may get a better setup today (pending scratches).

Fair Grounds Race 8:

Pace Forecast: +6.5

Most Likely Leader: 7

If the speed stays in, we love #6 Bailinonabudjet. The last 4 races favored speed, and the reverse may be true today.

Charles Town Race 6:

Pace Forecast: +16.3

Most Likely Leader: 2

#4 Heretodaygonemanana closed into a speed favoring race in her last.  She triples in price, so we should get 20/1 or more.

Golden Gate Race 3:

Pace Forecast: -1.2

Most Likely Leader: 3

#3 Di Laurian led in a race that favored stretch runners (+32.0). That earns a pace disadvantaged designation and today’s circumstances are much more favorable.

Golden Gate Race 4:

Pace Forecast: -28.0

Most Likely Leader: 2

#2 Desert Dude wired a bunch of these last out, and there’s no reason he can’t do it again today. A ThoroPACE double?

*NOTE: ThoroPACE Pace Forecasts range from -35 (best for speed) to +35 (best for stretch runners). Also, our products are updated to reflect scratches as they become available (typically an update of our products occurs around 11AM, 3PM and 6PM ET each day).

From Tyler Whisman

As we’ve worked on developing ThoroPACE, I’ve focused more on individual races – wagering more on Win and Place, along with other vertical wagers. Previously, I would focus the overwhelming majority of my bankroll on Pick Ns, with varying degrees of success.

With that in mind, I’m going to meander through the card and focus on races where the ThoroPACE Forecast offers some clues on horses I want to key my day around.

Keep in mind, if you’re a user of Xpressbet, you can leverage their “Parlay” option to create your own Pick N for races that are not in a specific sequence. I like to use this if I’m tied up and know I won’t be able to place wagers as the races occur. Of course, you’re locked into the wager and subject to the off odds – so it’s less than ideal, but I thought I’d mention it given the way I’m writing this analysis. If you have questions, reach out to me via Twitter.

***The following is before scratches, which can impact the pace, especially for races that appear to favor stretch runners

Race 1:

ThoroPACE Forecast: N/A

1 BALNIKHOV has a devastating late kick, but will he get a favorable pace setup? There is no Forecast here as there is a first time North America starter – who might be okay in this spot. That said, this race looks to favor runners that will be forwardly placed.

7 SUMTER stretches out to what appears to be his optimal distance. He also figures to have the lead, assuming Mike Smith is aggressive. If the Morning Line holds, I’d consider a win bet on this runner.

**If playing the early Pick 5 I’d single here and in Race 4 (3 FAUSTIN looks special, and will probably be 2/5 come post time after four consecutive gate works)

Race 2:

ThoroPACE Forecast: -6.1

The ThoroPACE Forecast favors speed runners – scratches only help in this situation. In a small field, 1 PRINCIP looks like controlling speed from the rail.

Race 7:

ThoroPACE Forecast: N/A (Due to the QH races from the 6)

8 BIG BEAUTY is a tepid morning line favorite but figures to be much shorter come post time. The pace situation doesn’t do her any favors, making it hard to take a short price, despite her figure edge (bigger on TG, which accounts for ground loss). Though she nearly overcame a similar situation two back.

This field is light on experience over the tricky downhill course, so there’s not much to go on there either. So once you get past the favorite, it seems pretty wide open.

We have a vulnerable favorite, but it’s hard to have much confidence in the rest of the field. I chose to include this race as it kicks off the Pick 5. In past years, it’s a good example of a race that I would have spread in, but now I will simply skip the race and sequence – looking to capitalize in other spots.

Race 8:

ThoroPACE Forecast: +11.4

A small field with a fast pace? For several reasons, this one might heat up beyond what the Forecast might suggest. And because of that, I’m looking for stretch runners.

6 FUN TO DREAM might be the right Baffert at a bit of a price. I’m particularly intrigued by the 12/17 work (though I wish the one last week was something other than 3F?) and think this filly might be moving forward at the right time.

Race 9:

ThoroPACE Forecast: +35

Scratches could change the pace complexion significantly – so that’s worth monitoring. Assuming the speed stays in the race (2, 4 and 10 specifically) 7 MYFAVORITEDAUGHTER might be worth consideration as she overcame speed-favoring conditions in her last. The distance is a question, but the price should compensate.

Race 10:

ThoroPACE Forecast: +35

6 TAIBA figures to be a heavy favorite in the Grade 1 Malibu. And it looks like he will get a great setup for his finishing kick. He looks formidable in this spot, assuming it’s not too sharp.

From a vertical perspective, I want to key 5 HOIST THE GOLD in 2nd/3rd spots.

Race 11:

ThoroPACE Forecast: +3.2

Assuming Tyler G. is aggressive from the gate, 6 MISE EN SCENE might find herself on the lead, and could be very difficult to pass late. An easier spot than her last, she ran well in the Breeders’ Cup and might have more upside. The Forecast is in her favor.

*NOTE: ThoroPACE Pace Forecasts range from -35 (best for speed) to +35 (best for stretch runners). Also, our products are updated to reflect scratches as they become available (typically an update of our products occurs around 11AM, 3PM and 6PM ET each day).

We’ve got Stakes action today at Zia Park. Let’s take a look at the racing through the lens of ThoroPACE. Consider this bonus coverage as Zia Park is typically not included in the ThoroPACE Products.

Sign up for a FREE ThoroPACE Account if you haven’t already!

Pace Forecasts change as scratches are announced.  Check back at THOROPACE.COM for an update. If fields stay intact, the following races have pace dynamics that make them good wagering considerations.

Zia Park Race 5:

Pace Forecast: +9.7

Most Likely Leader:

A neutral pace is forecasted today.  #4 Fleet of Flags was involved throughout in his latest under conditions that favored stretch runners.

Zia Park Race 6:

Pace Forecast: -14.0

Most Likely Leader: #5

A soft pace is expected, and favorite #5 Samurai Charm may be the quickest of these early.

Zia Park Race 7:

Pace Forecast: +16.0

Most Likely Leader:

If the field stays intact, the pace is forecasted to favor stretch runners.  #5 Sweet River Baines exits three consecutive speed-favoring races, and should be dangerous at a price.

Zia Park Race 9:

Pace Forecast: -4.9

Most Likely Leader:

#5 Corrina Corrina appears to have moved too soon into a stretch runner favoring pace in the latest race.  Will be a price with the move to open company.

*NOTE: ThoroPACE Pace Forecasts range from -35 (best for speed) to +35 (best for stretch runners). Also, our products are updated to reflect scratches as they become available (typically an update of our products occurs around 11AM, 3PM and 6PM ET each day).

We’ve got Stakes action on a Monday at Mahoning Valley. Let’s take a look at the racing through the lens of ThoroPACE.

Sign up for a FREE ThoroPACE Account if you haven’t already!

Pace Forecasts change as scratches are announced.  Check back at THOROPACE.COM for an update. If fields stay intact, the following races have pace dynamics that make them good wagering considerations.

Mahoning Valley Race 1:

Pace Forecast: +4.6

Most Likely Leader: #1A

#6 Always Mischievous ran well despite a speed-favoring pace in debut.  Today’s pace is projected to be in the neutral range.

Mahoning Valley Race 5:

Pace Forecast: -5.7

Most Likely Leader: #5

#5 The Devil’s Dream popped and stopped in a closer friendly event 10/26.  Today’s pace conditions should be more favorable for a frontrunner.

Mahoning Valley Race 7:

Pace Forecast: +32.4

Most Likely Leader: #2

If the field stays intact, the pace is forecasted to be very snappy!  #4 My Kentucky Girl went next-to-last to first at Keeneland under neutral conditions and may get the perfect setup today.

Mahoning Valley Race 8:

Pace Forecast: +24.6

Most Likely Leader: #4 , #6

#5 Tejano Twist is nearly a twin to the miss mentioned above.  He’s a recent Keeneland winner under neutral conditions who will likely get a favorable setup.  The other Keeneland shipper, #7 Hoist the Gold, also has a shot to rally late.

*NOTE: ThoroPACE Pace Forecasts range from -35 (best for speed) to +35 (best for stretch runners). Also, our products are updated to reflect scratches as they become available (typically an update of our products occurs around 11AM, 3PM and 6PM ET each day).

There is a carryover in today’s Late Pick 5 at Aqueduct. Let’s take a look at the sequence through the lens of ThoroPACE.

Sign up for a FREE ThoroPACE Account if you haven’t already!

Pace Forecasts change as scratches are announced.  Check back at THOROPACE.COM for an update. If fields stay intact, the following races have pace dynamics that make them good wagering considerations.

Aqueduct Race 6:

Pace Forecast: ? (No Forecast due to rare distance)

Most Likely Leader: ?

#2 Caironi closed despite very speed favoring conditions in her latest.  #1 Ensemble closed into moderately speed favoring conditions on 10/23.

Aqueduct Race 7:

Pace Forecast: (No Forecast due to First Time Starters)

Most Likely Leader: ?

#1 Chucka Moon had no chance in a very speed favoring contest 9/29, then little chance in a modestly speed favoring event on 10/29.  #7 Smoke and Heat was also up against the nearly impossible situation on 9/29.

Aqueduct Race 8:

Pace Forecast: +28.8

Most Likely Leader: 7

This event should favor stretch runners – Though the Forecast will change assuming the MTOs come out of the race.  #3 Franks Art & #8 Battle Station fit the bill.

AqueductRace 9:

Pace Forecast: +35.0

Most Likely Leader: 7

#9 Carbon is most likely to benefit from the expected pace melt down.  #1 Doc Doc Rock has a puncher’s chance at a price.

Aqueduct Race 10:

Pace Forecast: +8.9

Most Likely Leader: 8

We’ll go three deep: #2 Bustin the Rules, who won under neutral conditions after a few speed favoring tries; #3 Scotty, who has run well when not up against speed-favoring conditions; and #7 Supply Chain, who has been consistent in last two.  (The prior effort was impossible for a stretch runner.)

*NOTE: ThoroPACE Pace Forecasts range from -35 (best for speed) to +35 (best for stretch runners). Also, our products are updated to reflect scratches as they become available (typically an update of our products occurs around 11AM, 3PM and 6PM ET each day).