Tyler | ThoroPACE

The Triple Crown moves to Baltimore this weekend, so we wanted to provide some spotlight analysis for the Black-eyed Susan and Preakness Cards.

**We launched our new format in March, and I did a quick write-up here.

If you haven’t had a chance to sign up for a FREE Account, what are you waiting for?

Part of the intent of this post is to continue to educate users on how the ThoroPACE team incorporates our analytic tools into their handicapping process.

Let’s acknowledge that three products are presented in a single PDF. The ThoroPACE Forecast, ThoroPACE Spotlight Plays, and ThoroPACE Insider. While they’re all related, the utility of each is worth exploring independently.

The ThoroPACE Forecast is our core product and is where I start my handicapping process. The tool provides a snapshot of the projected pace dynamics for all races across the country – Typically in 2-3 pages depending on the number of tracks running.

ThoroPACE Forecasts range from -35 (best for speed) to +35 (best for stretch runners).

Our products are updated to reflect scratches as they become available (typically, an update of our products occurs around 11AM, 3PM and 6PM ET each day). This is important, especially in races that appear to favor stretch runners.

I scan the ThoroPACE Forecast daily and look for extreme-pace scenarios (my definition is anything in the outer two blue or red bands).

Races with a forecast that predict extreme pace scenarios are races that I will handicap. Will I handicap other races? Yes, but I make it a point to focus on those with extreme scenarios. This can be a huge time saver.

I’ve stated in multiple forums that this has changed my handle percentages. Prior to ThoroPACE, my bankroll was heavily skewed toward multi-race wagers. Now, I focus much more on Win, Place, and vertical exotics. The rationale is that it is rare to have a sequence where multiple races have pace scenarios that can be exploited. So I’ve become more focused.

Since we are focusing our analysis on Pimlico Park, I want to look at Races 1 and 11. These races feature a ThoroPACE Forecast of +24.1 and +25.0, respectively. In both races, I’m looking for stretch runners, assuming scratches don’t eliminate the speed horses.

With that in mind, the next step is to look at the ThoroPACE Spotlight Plays.

This product provides a summary of horses getting easier (consider playing) or tougher (consider fading) pace setups in today’s race.

The green and red carrots are pretty self-explanatory; more of them means a higher % and/or ROI.

For my own wagering, I’ve found “Vertical Value” horses to be extremely useful. The Green Carrots indicate runners are more likely to hit the board relative to their Morning Line expectations.

Of note, Race 12 at Pimlico features a stretch runner that is getting a hotter pace today – even though the Forecast is -0.7, as pace is relative. I’ll be sure to handicap that race in detail.

The ThoroPACE Insider is the newest addition to our lineup, containing tons of valuable information.

I’ll highlight the Pace Points first to orient you to the report. We assign pace points to each runner, collectively, along with field size, this is the basis of the Forecast for a given race.

We also show you the Pace rating from the prior two races, along with the general placement of the horse.

You will occasionally see red or green boxes around certain races. This indicates whether the runner was pace advantaged or disadvantaged in the race.

Finally, our TP Fig is a recent ability figure. I find it most useful when determining how much a horse might need to improve to compete. That said, we are currently trying to identify further utility of the TP Fig, which will likely be incorporated into Spotlight Plays. Stay tuned.

Let’s dive into these three races, starting with Race 1. The ThoroPACE Forecast is listed as +24.1, which should favor stretch runners. This bulky field of 14 could have a couple of scratches which might change the pace dynamics considerably. So, anytime I handicap a race and identify a stretch runner, I will check back after scratches to see if I need to reconsider.

The speed is drawn inside and they’re all next to each other. So the Forecast looks accurate to me.

Now, which stretch runner do we want to focus on? Most people will gravitate toward the outside, siding with 13 BATTLE OF NORMANDY for Shug and Irad. Given the race shape, there are plenty of things to like, but the price is not one of them. Also, this is a 3YO facing older horses – so the weight break is probably a wash, given the development edge that others have.

I’m looking inside, and while trainer Gustavo Delgado is focused on The Preakness, his runner has a big shot here. A confirmed closer, 1 O CAPTAIN is making a surface switch that should suit, based on his pedigree. Jockey Feargal Lynch is more than capable and will come up again later.

My hope is he will be able to save ground and come running in the lane. He might drift up given his lack of turf experience and spotty record, but he is an excellent vertical key horse.

Let’s move on to Race 11, another turf route with plenty of speed signed on. And this time, the speed is inside and outside – so I’ll look to find a closer.

The filly on the rail, 1 BREATH AWAY (GB), will be tough based on her victory in the Sanibel Island. She got a similar setup as the one expected today, and emphatically delivered. She’s hard to oppose.

You’ll notice the 5 LIL SPINNER, has the green box around the form line of her last race. She was “pace disadvantaged” that day. Typically, these are horses I want to include but she looks completely overmatched and is hard to figure. She also might face a tougher pace scenario today.

6 THIRTY THOU KELVIN is the horse I’m interested in. She was able to best the favorite two back, and while she got a better trip that day, she was game in the lane. She exited that victory to run in the Bourbonette Oaks at Turfway Park. A pair of Brad Cox runners dominated that race on the front end. Lasix might be a key for her, and the price will be right with Lynch, again in the irons. Getting her in the number would surely juice up the exotics.

The Pimlico Special has a Forecast of -0.7, which is a neutral rating. So, I’m generally looking for horses that will be forward.

As such, 5 LAW PROFESSOR should be a handful in here. He’s much more tactical than the likely favorite, 2 RATTLE N ROLL, who is trip and pace dependent.

Returning to the Spotlight Plays, 4 ARMANDO R is a stretch runner that should get a better setup on Friday. Even though this race is neutral, he’s exiting very speed-favoring races. This is a definite step up in class, but he’s 2-4 over the surface and 1-1 at the distance. He will be a massive price based on his low profile, mid-Atlantic connections – and I want to key him underneath.

It seems that most have conceded Friday’s feature to the Baffert trained, 9 FAIZA. She comes in undefeated but it’s certainly reasonable to question the quality of the fillies she’s been beating out west. She is rateable, which will help, but she figures to be a short price, especially for a horse that was “Pace Advantaged” in her last race (earning the red box).

Conversely, 4 MERLAZZA was “Pace Disadvantaged” in her last – closing into a race with a Pace Figure of -32.0. She’s dropping lasix and we don’t love the jockey on horses with this running style, but she should move forward and is certainly the most likely upsetter. We have the Black-eyed Susan Forecast pegged at +22.6, which should favor stretch runners. As such, we’ll use her as an A horse for multirace wagers. And relegate Faiza to a backup – only because we like several price horses in the prior races.

Let’s turn our attention to Saturday.

Pimlico Race 4 has a ThoroPACE Forecast of -12.6. 4 ARABIAN LION has a figure and pace edge. If you’re opposing him, you’re seeing something I’m not. He looks the most likely winner of the weekend. That said, it doesn’t mean he’s a good bet.

But maybe we can consider a multirace wager to create some value. Race 5 is a turf route with a Forecast of -2.5, a neutral setting but one that likely favors horses near the front. With a horse on the AE list and another entered as a MTO, at least one runner will scratch which means the race should be even more favorable to front runners come post time.

Unfortunately, the morning line looks to have sniffed out the best speed and accurately designated as the favorite. 6 TEQUILERA should get an aggressive ride from Tyler Gaffalione and they’ll likely have pass her in the stretch. I would want to be sure to include 5 DOWNTOWN KATIE who was “pace disadvantaged” in her last and should get a better setup today, even with the neutral designation.

1 HAVNAMELTDOWN figures to be another short-priced Baffert runner with a big shot to wire his foes in the Chick Lang Stakes. There is other speed in this race, but with a Forecast of +12.8, I’m comfortable siding with the likely “speed of the speed.” This Pick 3 sequence is one that I’d want to have for $20+, not one I’m trying to ‘just hit’.

I would use a couple backups in this leg, in case things get crazy up front. The best finishers (not necessarily closers) appear to be 3 FROSTED DEPARTURE and 7 PRINCE OF JERICHO. In A-B-C parlance, I’d use them both as Cs.

We will wrap up our spotlight analysis by taking a quick look at the Preakness Stakes. The ThoroPACE Forecast is +3.0. A neutral rating, should play fair in a small field. Still, other things equal, I’ll always prefer a front runner in this situation, mostly because of the graphic below.

1 NATIONAL TREASURE has the most pace points (likely driven by rail draw) and we project him on the lead. Based on the connections, this intuitively feels right. He will be tough to pass if others are content to let him go.

From there, it’s a little murky. 8 FIRST MISSION and 3 MAGE have the same amount of pace points but, drawn outside, it’s likely that the Cox runner will be more prominent early.

I’m not really against top two contenders – they both figure to run well. So how do we create value in this race?

My hope is that 6 PERFORM can be an underneath key horse that will offer some value. Most have pigeon holed this runner as a deep closer but that’s not really accurate in my opinion. He was shuffled back in the Tesio Stakes after a slight bobble at the start but prior to that he had consistently shown what I would describe as tactical speed.

He needs to improve but the stretch run of his last race gave hints of significant ability. Supplementing for this race is not a typical Shug move. I view that as a sign of confidence and indicates he has high hopes for this one. I am concerned that he’s dropping lasix but the works seem to indicate he’s moving forward out of his last race.

I prefer him to 5 – RED ROUTE ONE who is exiting a race in which he got a perfect setup. The fear with this runner is that Rosario leaves him too much to do.

In terms of wagering, I’ll bet this race vertically. Keying Perform in second, under Mage and National Treasure. And then I’ll play him in trifectas in the third position – while also keying the top two in the 1/2 slot.

Best of luck. Please follow us on Twitter @ThoroPACE

As we approach the First Saturday in May, it’s time to look back. Let’s review the Kentucky Derby Prep Races through the lens of ThoroPACE.

Before we jump in, a quick reminder on our pace scale. ThoroPACE Pace Forecasts range from -35 (favors speed) to +35 (favors stretch runners). 

With that in mind, the table below lays out the ThoroPACE Pace Figure assigned to each of the 2023 Kentucky Derby Prep Races. We will mostly focus on the latest round of preps.

FORTE – Florida Derby

Let’s start at the top. FORTE is the likely Kentucky Derby favorite and exits a winning effort in the Florida Derby – a race with a Pace Figure of +22. This is a race that should have favored stretch runners.

Forte was seventh early, nearly six lengths from the leader at the first call. The pace dynamics favored his style, and he took advantage. MAGE was further back early and, despite making an eye-catching move, could not capitalize fully.

Looking back at Forte’s other races, nothing is overly positive or negative. The Fountain of Youth Stakes was assigned a Pace Figure of -6, but Forte adjusted accordingly, racing closer to the front.

TAPIT TRICE – Blue Grass Stakes and Tampa Bay Derby

From a pace perspective, TAPIT TRICE, might be more impressive than his stablemate. The Blue Grass Stakes was assigned a Pace Figure of -14, which skews toward being slightly speed-favoring. Although Tapit Trice broke more alertly, he was still more than eight lengths off the lead at the point of first call. This was an impressive performance.

VERIFYING was game in defeat; however, he was much closer to a pace that should have given him a relative advantage. Factoring in ground loss, Tapit Trice was the better horse that day, but I don’t want to be overly dismissive of Verifying.

One reason to consider Verifying in the Derby would be his tactical speed. Last year was an anomaly, pace-wise. This year looks much more tepid, though, with 20 horses in the gate, a fast/honest pace is certainly assured. So then it becomes a matter of trips. And theoretically, a horse that is more forward should encounter less traffic in the stretch.

PRACTICAL MOVE – Santa Anita Derby

Assigned a Pace Figure of +1, the Santa Anita Derby was run under neutral pace conditions. The race was won by PRACTICAL MOVE, who sat just behind a pair of long-shot leaders. His ground-saving trip was clearly the difference here.

Arguably, his San Felipe was more impressive from a pace-dynamic standpoint. He has some questions to answer, including his desire to go longer, but he’s solid nonetheless.

MANDARIN HERO deserves mention as he was disrespected at the windows but showed up and ran a winning race. SKINNER is the horse who projects best at the Kentucky Derby distance, from what I’ve seen. He was wide around both turns and much further back than his rivals. Perhaps that was by design (to avoid kickback), but Skinner could be a very live long shot, assuming he makes the gate.

ANGEL OF EMPIRE – Arkansas Derby

Most people would probably describe ANGEL OF EMPIRE as a stretch runner. He was nearly five lengths from the leader in the Arkansas Derby which received a +6 Pace Figure. That neutral rating was similar to the Risen Star Stakes, where he was further back in a race assigned a +4 Pace Figure.

Angel of Empire secures the services of Flavien Prat, who has a history of good rides in the Kentucky Derby. He comes in fast and should get more pace to run at than he has in his prior two efforts. He’s very live but also trip dependent.

Speaking of the Risen Star, now is a good time to mention SUN THUNDER as a horse with potential upside based on pace dynamics. He was further back relative to Angel of Empire in the Risen Star. Additionally, we already discussed the Blue Grass Stakes where he was several lengths behind Tapit Trice.

At this point, I’m not willing to back Sun Thunder on the win end, but with more pace to chase he could definitely hit the board at a huge number. And that leads us to the Louisiana Derby.

KINGSBARNS – Lousiana Derby

Even novice horseplayers are aware that the Lousiana Derby was a slow paced race. Indeed, KINGSBARNS got the job done on the lead, in a race with a Pace Figure of -26 (very speed favoring).

On the surface, it makes sense to downgrade his effort as the pace dynamics and overall race shape aren’t going to be as favorable next time. But Kingsbarns is relatively unexposed and should still have upside, especially as the distances increase. So, ThoroPACE numbers are telling me to dismiss but I’m struggling to toss him completely because he might improve and should be able to work out a favorable trip, even if not on the lead.

Revisiting Sun Thunder, he was certainly up against it in this race as only he and Instant Coffee made up ground in the final stages of the race. DISARM finished a solid second under less than ideal circumstances but appeared to have little excuse in The Lexington Stakes – unless you have the opinion that was simply a necessary prep to secure points.

LORD MILES – Wood Memorial

LORD MILES was a surprise winner of the Wood Memorial, a race that received a +1 Pace Figure. Given his early position, it’s an unremarkable result as it relates to pace dynamics.

The runner-up, HIT SHOW was just behind the eventual winner throughout. So little excuse for him. Separating these two likely comes down to connections, training, price, etc.

TWO PHIL’S – Jeff Ruby Steaks

TWO PHIL’S looked a winner every step of the way in the Jeff Ruby Steaks. The race was assigned a Pace Figure of -13 (slightly speed-favoring).

He was in seventh position early, but only a few lengths back. This was a promising effort, given how he won (5+ Lengths).

A horse that likes Churchill Downs and comes to the Derby via the Turfway Park route – Sound familiar?

The Jeff Ruby Steaks was fast on all figures, and while there are some remaining questions, Two Phil’s looks like a legitimate Kentucky Derby contender.

DERMA SOTOGAKE – UAE DERBY

We don’t have the necessary information to make pace figures for international races. In a race lacking a clear front-runner, one should expect DERMA SOTOGAKE to be prominent.

We are working on a way to account for the Japanese runners so we can confidently assign a ThoroPACE Forecast for the Kentucky Derby.

Final Thoughts on The Kentucky Derby

The intent here, roughly two weeks out, is not to pick a winner per se. I wanted to walk through some of the Derby preps with the idea of highlighting horses that might offer value and others that might be vulnerable.

At this point, I think I can confidently say that Two Phil’s, Tapit Trice and Angel of Empire will be prominent on most tickets.

Derma Sotogake is a bit of an enigma, but he’s worth considering in a race that lacks 2022 Derby speed. On the surface, it seems he will inherit the lead if he so chooses. Others who objectively figure to forward early include Verifying, Practical Move, and Kingsbarns.

One of the more intriguing runners is Disarm. He had a pace-related excuse in the Lousiana Derby but little excuse in The Lexington Stakes. Considering Steve Asmussen’s struggles at Keeneland, maybe that’s worth forgiving? I assume he will have a single work leading into the Derby – it will be very important.

Finally, Sun Thunder and Skinner are horses I will watch closely leading into the race. They project to offer some potential value.

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*Still trying to decide what might work best 🙂

Earlier this month, we released a new version of our ThoroPACE product. I did a quick write-up of the new format here.

If you haven’t had a chance to sign up for a FREE Account, what are you waiting for?

Today, I wanted to walk through my process for using ThoroPACE. And we’ll cover a few races from Oaklawn Park’s Rebel Card.

Let’s acknowledge that three products are presented in a single PDF. The ThoroPACE Forecast, ThoroPACE Spotlight Plays, and ThoroPACE Insider. While they’re all related, the utility of each is worth exploring independently.

The ThoroPACE Forecast is our core product and is where I start my handicapping process. The idea is to provide a snapshot of the pace dynamics for all races across the country – Typically in 2-3 pages depending on the number of tracks running.

ThoroPACE Forecasts range from -35 (best for speed) to +35 (best for stretch runners).

Our products are updated to reflect scratches as they become available (typically, an update of our products occurs around 11AM, 3PM and 6PM ET each day). This is important, especially in races that appear to favor stretch runners.

I scan the ThoroPACE Forecast daily and look for extreme-pace scenarios (my definition is anything in the outer two blue or red bands).

Races with a forecast that predict extreme pace scenarios are races that I will handicap. Will I handicap other races? Yes, but I make it a point to focus on those with extreme scenarios. This can be a huge time saver.

I’ve stated in multiple forums that this has changed my handle percentages. Prior to ThoroPACE, my bankroll was heavily skewed toward multi-race wagers. Now, I focus on Win, Place, and vertical exotics. The rationale is that it is rare to have a sequence where multiple races have pace scenarios that can be exploited. So I’ve become more focused.

Since we are focusing our analysis on Oaklawn Park, I want to look at Races 10 and 11. These races feature a ThoroPACE Forecast of +35.0 and +28.6, respectively. I’m looking for stretch runners, assuming scratches don’t eliminate the speed horses.

With that in mind, let’s take a quick look at the ThoroPACE Spotlight Plays.

This product provides a summary of horses getting easier (consider playing) or tougher (consider fading) pace setups in today’s race.

The green and red carrots are pretty self-explanatory, more of them means a higher % and/or ROI.

For my own wagering, I’ve found “Vertical Value” horses to be extremely useful. The Green Carrots indicate runners are more likely to hit the board relative to their Morning Line expectations.

Of note, Race 8 at Oaklawn features one horse getting an easier and another getting a tougher setup today. This might seem surprising since the Forecast for the race is Neutral at -1.9. But remember, this is possible because we are looking at previous pace scenarios in the context of today’s ThoroPACE Forecast.

#6 Spankster hails from the relatively cold Lukas barn (though it was good to ThoroPACE last Saturday with Last Samurai). He is a stretch runner who exits races with -23.0 and -30.0 Forecasts. So, the -1.9 Forecast should be much more favorable to his style, and as a result, he shows up on our Spotlight Play Report.

Conversely, #1 Flap Jack is from a red hot barn but has the “Vulnerable Chalk” designation. He’s coming off a pair of wins (notably on off tracks) that featured -30.0 and -13.0 Pace Forecasts. Again, though today’s Forecast is neutral, it’s taken into context relative to his recent races. Since he will face more pace pressure today (assuming no scratches) and spots the field weight, I will consider fading at a short price – unless the track is muddy?

The ThoroPACE Insider is the newest addition to our lineup, containing tons of valuable information.

I’ll highlight the Pace Points first to orient you to the report. We assign pace points to each runner, collectively, along with field size, this is the basis of the Forecast for a given race.

We also show you the Pace rating from the prior two races, along with the general placement of the horse.

You will occasionally see red or green boxes around certain races. This indicates whether the runner was pace advantaged or disadvantaged in the race.

Finally, our TP Fig is a recent ability figure. I find it most useful when determining how much a horse might need to improve to compete. That said, we are currently trying to identify further utility of the TP Fig, which will likely be incorporated into Spotlight Plays. Stay tuned.

We’ve already discussed race 8, but the ThoroPACE Insider provides more detail that was the rationale for the “vulnerable chalk” designation on Flap Jack. Again, the red box indicates that he was pace advantaged in his last win as he led in a -30.0 race.

There’s nothing on the surface that excites me about Race 9. It’s a neutral forecast of +6.5, so I will handicap using other factors if I play the race.

The Grade 3 Honeybee Stakes has a Forecast of +35.0, and it should setup for stretch runners. There’s speed inside and outside, so assuming a fair track, I’ll look for the best closer.

#7 Wet Paint won the Martha Washington impressively and figures to get similar if not better setup today. She’s undefeated on dirt, proven at the distance and track, and shows a bullet work last weekend. I will consider a win bet at anything over 5/2.

Tomorrow afternoon, all eyes will be on the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes. This is an accomplished bunch, many with considerable upside.

The Forecast is +28.6, so we are, again, searching for stretch runners.

I will start by saying that #1 Verifying is a horse I like a lot. I backed him in the recent KDFW, pairing him in exactas with the field. I expect him to run well, but he’s no cinch. While he should be forward, he’s shown the ability to rate and pass horses. Still, I don’t love the rail draw, he’s dropping Lasix and is spotting weight to several runners.

The horse that should benefit the most from the expected pace dynamics is #3 Red Route One. While he was no match for Arabian Knight in his last race, he did run well over the surface. Santana opted for the other Asmussen, but Torres is more than capable. At 10-1, he would be a vertical key horse for me, and I’ll hopefully be alive in doubles from Wet Paint.

Best of luck. Please follow us on Twitter @ThoroPACE

Let’s take a look at some of the racing around the country.

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Pace Forecasts change as scratches are announced.  Check back at THOROPACE.COM for an update. If fields stay intact, the following races have pace dynamics that make them good wagering considerations.

Gulfstream Park Race 1:

Pace Forecast: -20.0

Most Likely Leader: 3

A paceless event in which #3 Networking (4/1) or #6 Buddha Boy (20/1) could wire

Gulfstream Park Race 4:

Pace Forecast: -26.0

Most Likely Leader:

Another pace free event; #4 Cloud Storage (3/1) should be forwardly placed and holds the highest TP Fig in the race.

Delta Downs Race 5:

Pace Forecast: +27.7

Most Likely Leader: #11

A fast pace is likely based on the Forecast, especially if #11 Optimistic draws in; It’s worth noting, this horse was Pace Disadvantaged (green box) in last but today’s pace projects to be equally taxing.

#3 Secular Stagnation (12/1) has had little chance to close in last two speed favoring events.

Tampa Bay Downs Race 2:

Pace Forecast: +3.8

Most Likely Leader: 3

#3 I’m a Cutie (9/2) set too quick a pace at 7 furlongs (Green Box = Pace Disadvantaged); may set a moderate pace today turning back as Controlling Speed.

Turfway Park Race 6:

Pace Forecast: +12.6

Most Likely Leader: 9

#11 Johny’s Fireball (15/1) made up some ground in a slow-paced return at 6 furlongs; stretches out to proper distance today.

*NOTE: ThoroPACE Pace Forecasts range from -35 (best for speed) to +35 (best for stretch runners). Also, our products are updated to reflect scratches as they become available (typically an update of our products occurs around 11AM, 3PM and 6PM ET each day).

Sign up for a FREE ThoroPACE Account today!

Based on customer feedback, ThoroPACE has been completely revamped. Now, horseplayers will have more information to aid in their handicapping.

The new format will display “ThoroPACE Pace Points” for each horse instead of just the overall race.

We also included pace analytics for the past two races. And using our “Pace Advantaged” and “Pace Disadvantaged” designations, horseplayers can quickly identify horses that might be overlays or underlays.

Finally, we’ve combined our products into a single download.

ThoroPACE Pace Forecasts range from -35 (best for speed) to +35 (best for stretch runners). The Forecast is primarily based on the Pace Points of the individual horses combined with the number of runners.

We’ve also introduced the ThoroPACE Ability Figure. This can provide a quick view of a horse’s ability.

In the example above, let’s focus on Race 2. The Pace Forecast is +3.6, which is neutral. 2 CULDEE is the Morning Line favorite but exits a race where she underperformed relative to the pace dynamics (red box). That is, she was Pace Advantaged in her last.

Conversely, both parts of the entry were Pace Disadvantaged in one of their last two starts. By looking at the Pace Points, you can see that both horses should be forward, and with an overall neutral Forecast, they are worth a play.

We will continue to share examples of how we think the products are best used.

Our products are updated to reflect scratches as they become available (typically, an update of our products occurs around 11AM, 3PM and 6PM ET each day).