What is the ThoroPACE Forecast?
The Pace Forecast is where we begin the process of race design.
Our algorithms assign speed points to runners based on readily available metrics from their past races. It’s the foundation of our analytics process.
The result is a simplistic, yet data-driven output known as the Pace Forecast. It will determine the likely pace scenario of the race in question and identify the predicted leader(s).
Obviously, this is important for many reasons but it’s worth noting that according to our analyses, more than 36% of winners have the lead at the 1/4 or 1/2 mark of any given race.
How Can the ThoroPACE – Pace Forecast Help Me Handicap Races?
Our simplified layout provides an overview of pace scenarios “at a glance.”
If you’re a “pace handicapper” it can quickly identify races that deserve your attention.
Most races have a Neutral Pace Forecast. At least based on objective measures. These races can either be avoided or handicapped by relying on other approaches.
We think of the Pace Forecast as a starting point for handicapping.
Why aren’t ALL races included in the ThoroPACE – Pace Forecast?
Races that feature mostly first-time starters are not included in the Pace Forecast. Given the lack of objective data, the pace dynamics and likely leader would be a guess.
As a rule, we don’t provide a Pace Forecast for races that lack sufficient objective data.
Can you explain the ThoroPACE – Pace Forecast?
The Pace Forecast is based on a 70-point scale that ranges from -35 to +35.
Races with a Pace Forecast of -35 are expected to feature a very slow pace and would therefore benefit speed horses.
Races with a Pace Forecast of +35 are expected to feature a very fast pace and would therefore benefit stretch runners.
The color coding is meant to help. Specifically, blue indicates a slow pace expectation and red indicates a fast pace expectation.
How can I sign up for ThoroPACE
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Anyone who signs up for a FREE ThoroPACE account will be given all of our offerings at no cost through February, 2023. Please sign up here.