Tyler | ThoroPACE

Time for some ThoroPACE guided analysis of the Thursday card at Keeneland.

Make sure to sign up for a FREE ThoroPACE Account if you haven’t already!

If fields stay intact, Races 2 and 8 are forecasted to favor stretch runners.  And Races 4 and 7 are forecasted to STRONGLY favor stretch runners.

Keeneland Race 3:

Pace Forecast -4.5

Most Likely Leader: #8 

#8 Bourbonwithginger appears to be the controlling speed from a favorable outside post.

Keeneland Race 5:

Pace Forecast: +14.3

Most Likely Leaders: #7, #1

#3 Cousin Larry is the only runner in here to win from off the pace and seems to like being in Lexington.

Keeneland Race 8:

Pace Forecast: +25.1

Most Likely Leader: #1

The pace should be brisk, and #2 Roses for Debra has shown the ability to rally with just a neutral pace.

Keeneland Race 9:

Pace Forecast: +35.0

Most Likely Leader: #7

#2 Candy Light takes a needed drop and is forecasted to get a needed hot pace. #8 Toeris and #10 Blissful may also benefit from an early cavalry charge.

Keeneland Race 10:

Pace Forecast: +33.8

Most Likely Leader: #1

#4 Fleetridge may be able to close in this hot-paced sprint (fun fact: he’s the first ALB to KEE shipper in at least 5 years). #6 East of India and #11 Honorary Degree seem to be interesting exotic plays if the morning lines are correct.

*NOTE: ThoroPACE Pace Forecasts range from -35 (best for speed) to +35 (best for stretch runners). Also, our products are updated to reflect scratches as they become available (typically an update of our products occurs around 11AM, 3PM and 6PM ET each day).

Keeneland resumes on Wednesday and we are back with some ThoroPACE guided analysis.

Make sure to sign up for a FREE ThoroPACE Account if you haven’t already!

If fields stay intact, Races 2 and 8 are forecasted to favor stretch runners.  And Races 4 and 7 are forecasted to STRONGLY favor stretch runners.

Keeneland Race 2:

Pace Forecast +19.7

Most Likely Leader: #7 

#4 Practical Sense ships in from Delaware and has shown the ability to pass horses when given a neutral pace.

Keeneland Race 4:

Pace Forecast: +32.3

Most Likely Leader: #10

#2 Sono Grato was stuck behind speed favoring paces in the last two tries. Better set up expected today.

Keeneland Race 7:

Pace Forecast: +35.0

Most Likely Leader: #11

#7 Redeemer stalked and pounced despite a speed-favoring pace in the maiden breaker.

Keeneland Race 8:

Pace Forecast: +18.9

Most Likely Leader: ?

#8 Greatheart nearly went last-to-first despite a speed-favoring pace at KD.  Looms very large in here.

*NOTE: ThoroPACE Pace Forecasts range from -35 (best for speed) to +35 (best for stretch runners). Also, our products are updated to reflect scratches as they become available (typically an update of our products occurs around 11AM, 3PM and 6PM ET each day).

After a successful Soft Launch of ThoroPACE, we provide a look at some of the racing for Tuesday through the lens of our Premium Race Analytics tools.

If fields stay intact, the following races are worthy of your attention based on the ThoroPACE Forecasts:

Belterra Park Race 10:

Pace Forecast +21.9

Most Likely Leader(s): #9, #3

#1 Brodytheoxman and #11 Saving Mama seem most likely to benefit from the forecasted pace which should benefit stretch runners.

Finger Lakes Race 1:

Pace Forecast +20.6

Most Likely Leader(s): #1

#2 Trigger Pull overcame a slow pace in his last, and is likely to get more pace to run at today.

Mountaineer Race 7:

Pace Forecast +16.9

Most Likely Leader(s): #2, #1

#4 Rudiger was stuck behind an impossibly speed-favoring pace in his last and can expect the opposite scenario today.  Second off a long layoff.

Penn National Race 2:

Pace Forecast -21.0

Most Likely Leader(s): #3, #4

#3 Palace Supernova seems most likely to get the early lead in a race forecasted to be speed-favoring.

Presque Isle Downs Race 2:

Pace Forecast +10.1

Most Likely Leader(s): #7

While the forecasted pace is in the neutral range, that would be a big improvement for #1 Yadi, who closed into 25.9 & 50.9 fractions in his latest.

Parx Race 3:

Pace Forecast -2.5

Most Likely Leader(s): #7

#7 Splicethemainbrace appears to be controlling speed here, but must get out and over quickly.

*NOTE: ThoroPACE Pace Forecasts range from -35 (best for speed) to +35 (best for stretch runners). Also, our products are updated to reflect scratches as they become available (typically an update around 11AM, 3PM and 6PM ET each day).

After a successful Soft Launch of ThoroPACE, we will keep up our brief analysis of the Holiday racing on Monday.

If fields stay intact, the following races are worthy of your attention based on the Pace Forecasts:

Fort Erie Race 4:

Pace Forecast -2.0

Most Likely Leader(s): #6

#6 Sanna Marinis appears to be controlling speed in this bottom-level claiming race.

Fort Erie Race 8:

Pace Forecast +5.3

Most Likely Leader(s): #5

#5 Brienne of Tarth steps way up off the recent claim, but may be the controlling speed in this MSW.

Finger Lakes Race 6:

Pace Forecast +35.0

Most Likely Leader(s): #3

#5 Starship Goddess and #6 Tuxedo Lemon will most benefit from the anticipated hot pace.

Presque Isle Downs Race 1:

Pace Forecast -14.0

Most Likely Leader(s): #3

#3 Sign and Seal appears to be the only runner in here with early speed.

*NOTE: ThoroPACE Pace Forecasts range from -35 (best for speed) to +35 (best for stretch runners). Also, our products are updated to reflect scratches as they become available (typically an update around 11AM, 3PM and 6PM ET each day).

Other Races Worth Handicapping:

The following races have a ThoroPACE Forecast suggesting extreme pace dynamics

Parx Race 8

Parx Race 11

In coordination with the Soft Launch of ThoroPACE, we wanted to provide some quick thoughts on the Opening Sunday card at Keeneland.

If fields stay intact, opening Sunday at Keeneland features three events with Pace Forecasts that are worth digging into –

The opener is forecasted to be a soft pace race.  While races 6 and 8 are forecasted as having a very hot pace.

Keeneland Race 1:

Pace Forecast -16.0

Most Likely Leader: #5 

#5 Guana Cay may be fastest, although we fear a duel with #6 Kimberley Dream.

Keeneland Race 6:

Pace Forecast +35.0
Most Likely Leader: #10

#5 Love Reigns showed the ability to pass a runner in latest, and should be tough to beat.

#10 Castelmola got the perfect wire-to-wire setup in debut, while #11 Private Creed got a hot pace in the KD win.

Keeneland Race 8:

Pace Forecast +34.0
Most Likely Leader: #13

#3 Reckoning Force and #4 Deer District had similar closing trips at KD in a stakes race with a neutral pace.  If the speed stays in, both should be tough.

*NOTE: ThoroPACE Pace Forecasts range from -35 (best for speed) to +35 (best for stretch runners). Also, our products are updated to reflect scratches as they become available (typically an update around 11AM, 3PM and 6PM ET each day).