It’s closing week at Keeneland (kind of?) so let’s take a look at some of the action.
Tyler was a guest on the Players’ Podcast to discuss the Late Pick 5 – So make sure to check that out!
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If fields stay intact, the following races have pace dynamics that make them good wagering considerations.
Keeneland Race 1:
Pace Forecast: -16.0
Most Likely Leader: #6
The pace is forecasted to be speed-favoring, and #6 Passionfortreasure seems the most likely wire-to-wire candidate.
Keeneland Race 4:
Pace Forecast: -10.0
Most Likely Leader: ?
The pace forecast leans a bit speed favoring, and #3 Overtaxed is the one with a history of (sometimes) making the top in a dirt sprint. Hopefully, Bejarano will be aggressive as the trainer excels with this class level, surface, and distance.
Keeneland Race 6:
Pace Forecast: +8.7
Most Likely Leader: #6
#4 Ride the Plan may stalk and pounce. She and #3 Zainalarab are the only runners to win a dirt sprint from off the pace. But this might be too sharp for the latter and the barn has been cold. If the outside pair can pass horses, they might be able to avoid kickback and run well.
Keeneland Race 7:
Pace Forecast: +24.0
Most Likely Leader: #3
The pace is forecasted to favor stretch runners, making #1 Kitten Mischief and #4 Brazillionaire value candidates candidates. The latter showed a new dimension while rallying to win a Saratoga turf mile. Using them with #7 Al’s Rocket (another stretch runner) might be a wise vertical strategy.
Keeneland Race 8:
Pace Forecast: ?
Most Likely Leader: ?
With the presence of the first-time starter on the outside, there is no Forecast for this race (no data = no Forecast). Of those that have raced, #3 Master Game looks like the potential controlling speed – acknowledging we don’t know the intentions of the FTS. Tyler made some arguments against this horse but they’re not really based on pace analysis. 🙂
*NOTE: ThoroPACE Pace Forecasts range from -35 (best for speed) to +35 (best for stretch runners). Also, our products are updated to reflect scratches as they become available (typically an update of our products occurs around 11AM, 3PM and 6PM ET each day).
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