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The Breeders’ Cup returns to Lexington. Below, we’ll take a look at some of the races at Keeneland on Friday.

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Pace Forecasts change as scratches are announced.  Check back tomorrow at THOROPACE.COM for update. If fields stay intact, the following races have pace dynamics that make them good wagering considerations.

Keeneland Race 5:

Pace Forecast: ? (due to rare distance)

Most Likely Leader: ?

#1 Rattle N Roll got a nice pace set up in the latest.  #3 Cupid’s Claws (the pick) was unable to close in the last two speed-favoring races (both won wire-to-wire).  #5 Sheriff Brown went last to first in 200k stakes without getting the benefit of a closer favoring pace (using).

Keeneland Race 6:

Pace Forecast: ? (No Forecast due to First Time North American horses)

Most Likely Leader: ?

#8 American Apple (using) overcame a modest speed-favoring pace in the Matron.  #9 Sharp Aza Tack (the pick) was against a closer favoring pace when run down late at KD.

Keeneland Race 7:

Pace Forecast: +35.0

Most Likely Leader: #2

If the field stays intact, the pace should be hot! #3 And Tell Me Nolies benefitted from a very stretch runner favoring pace in her latest.  In the  Alcibiades, #5 Wonder Wheel was able to wire the despite the stretch runner favoring pace, #7 Chop Chop took advantage of the pace while just missing, and #4 Sabra Tuff failed to rally. #14 Raging Sea gets bonus points for staying involved throughout but drew poorly.

Keeneland Race 8:

Pace Forecast: ? (No Forecast due to First Time North American horses)

Most Likely Leader: ?

#2 Cairo Consort had a troubled trip and battled a speed-favoring pace in the G1 Natalma (the pick), while #3 Last Call overcame the pace with a cleaner trip (using).  #9 Delight got away with soft fractions winning her last.

Keeneland Race 9:

Pace Forecast: +35.0

Most Likely Leader: #1, #3

Another hot pace is anticipated.  #1 Hurricane J is 2 for 2 sprinting despite stretch runner favoring flow.  Will go as far as he can.  #4 Forte took advantage of a closer favoring pace in the Breeders Futurity.  #6 Blazing Sevens went last to first in Champagne under neutral conditions (the pick).

Keeneland Race 10:

Pace Forecast: ? (No Forecast due to First Time North American horses)

Most Likely Leader: ?

#6 Andthewinneris and #11 Reckoning Force got the perfect pace set up in the Bourbon.  #3 Curly Larry and Mo was a ThoroPACE selection in the maiden breaker, and will be near the top early today (the pick).

*NOTE: ThoroPACE Pace Forecasts range from -35 (best for speed) to +35 (best for stretch runners). Also, our products are updated to reflect scratches as they become available (typically an update of our products occurs around 11AM, 3PM and 6PM ET each day).

Let’s take a look at some of the action at Keeneland today.

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If fields stay intact, the following races have pace dynamics that make them good wagering considerations.

Keeneland Race 1:

Pace Forecast: -14.0

Most Likely Leader: #3

The pace is forecasted to be speed favoring, and #3 Words of Wisdom seems the most likely to wire this group.  Seems more suited to dirt.

Keeneland Race 4:

Pace Forecast: -13.0

Most Likely Leader: #6

Another speed favoring pace is forecasted. # 6 Bear Oak is likely to make the top in this starter allowance.

Keeneland Race 5:

Pace Forecast: +24.9
Most Likely Leader: #5, #9

If the #5, #8 and #9 stay in, we forecast a pace that will favor stretch runners.  That points us to #12 Let’s Duet, who closed to win at KEE when given a neutral pace and made up modest ground in a speed favoring KEE 1x after her disastrous start.  The rider must find a way to save some ground.

Keeneland Race 7:

Pace Forecast: +16.5

Most Likely Leader: #2

If the two stretching out (#2 and #7) participate, the pace should be hotter than average. #1 Centurion should save ground and may duplicate his OP maiden breaker.

Keeneland Race 8:

Pace Forecast: +21.5

Most Likely Leader: #8

Another faster-than-average pace is expected here. #5 Personal Best, #9 Lovely Princess and #10 Silky Warrior should be making up ground in the stretch.

*NOTE: ThoroPACE Pace Forecasts range from -35 (best for speed) to +35 (best for stretch runners). Also, our products are updated to reflect scratches as they become available (typically an update of our products occurs around 11AM, 3PM and 6PM ET each day).

It’s closing week at Keeneland (kind of?) so let’s take a look at some of the action.

Tyler was a guest on the Players’ Podcast to discuss the Late Pick 5 – So make sure to check that out!

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If fields stay intact, the following races have pace dynamics that make them good wagering considerations.

Keeneland Race 1:

Pace Forecast: -16.0

Most Likely Leader: #6

The pace is forecasted to be speed-favoring, and #6 Passionfortreasure seems the most likely wire-to-wire candidate.

Keeneland Race 4:

Pace Forecast: -10.0

Most Likely Leader: ?

The pace forecast leans a bit speed favoring, and #3 Overtaxed is the one with a history of (sometimes) making the top in a dirt sprint. Hopefully, Bejarano will be aggressive as the trainer excels with this class level, surface, and distance.

Keeneland Race 6:

Pace Forecast: +8.7

Most Likely Leader: #6

#4 Ride the Plan may stalk and pounce.  She and #3 Zainalarab are the only runners to win a dirt sprint from off the pace. But this might be too sharp for the latter and the barn has been cold. If the outside pair can pass horses, they might be able to avoid kickback and run well.

Keeneland Race 7:

Pace Forecast: +24.0

Most Likely Leader: #3

The pace is forecasted to favor stretch runners, making #1 Kitten Mischief and #4 Brazillionaire value candidates candidates.  The latter showed a new dimension while rallying to win a Saratoga turf mile. Using them with #7 Al’s Rocket (another stretch runner) might be a wise vertical strategy.

Keeneland Race 8:

Pace Forecast: ?

Most Likely Leader: ?

With the presence of the first-time starter on the outside, there is no Forecast for this race (no data = no Forecast). Of those that have raced, #3 Master Game looks like the potential controlling speed – acknowledging we don’t know the intentions of the FTS. Tyler made some arguments against this horse but they’re not really based on pace analysis. 🙂

*NOTE: ThoroPACE Pace Forecasts range from -35 (best for speed) to +35 (best for stretch runners). Also, our products are updated to reflect scratches as they become available (typically an update of our products occurs around 11AM, 3PM and 6PM ET each day).

Let’s take a look at some of the races on offer across the country on Sunday.

Make sure to sign up for a FREE ThoroPACE Account if you haven’t already!

If fields stay intact, the following races have pace dynamics that make them good wagering opportunities. We’ve got a few speed plays based on today’s initial ThoroPACE Forecast. Speed runners aren’t going to be impacted by scratches (theoretically they could improve but not worsen) in the same way stretch runners are potentially impacted.

Woodbine Race 9:

Pace Forecast: -18.0

Most Likely Leaders: #5, #3

#3 The Minkster and #5 Ironstone may be the quickest of these.

Hawthorne Race 1:

Pace Forecast: +2.7

Most Likely Leader #2

#2 Coal Town Road appears to be the controlling speed in this race.

Hawthorne Race 3:

Pace Forecast: -14.0

Most Likely Leader #6

#6 Hey Ma has a chance to wire this group at a big price.

Hawthorne Race 7:

Pace Forecast: +34.0

Most Likely Leaders: #2, #4

#3 McMoney has shown the ability to pass runners, and he did so without the benefit of a hot pace.  The price should be right given the step up from MCL company.

Santa Anita Race 1:

Pace Forecast: -17.0

Most Likely Leader: ?

#2 Loyal to a Fault may be the least slow of this bunch of plodders.

Santa Anita Race 3:

Pace Forecast: -13.0

Most Likely Leader: #4

#4 Mecklenburg may get clear early.

There are several races today that appear to setup for stretch runners. They’re worth looking into following scratches, assuming the pace stays in the race.

*NOTE: ThoroPACE Pace Forecasts range from -35 (best for speed) to +35 (best for stretch runners). Also, our products are updated to reflect scratches as they become available (typically an update of our products occurs around 11AM, 3PM and 6PM ET each day).

Let’s start with some very basic concepts.

We classify early speed horses as Speed Runners or Controlling Speed, depending on the pace dynamics within a race.

Conversely, Stretch Runners are not projected to be near the early pace and typically benefit from faster paces. You may refer to these horses as closers but we prefer the broader term, Stretch Runner.

As you are hopefully aware, ThoroPACE has two primary products within our current offering of Premium Race Analytics Tools. The ThoroPACE Forecast and ThoroPACE Spotlight Plays. Here, we will focus on how the ThoroPACE team uses the Spotlight Plays Report.

How to View Controlling Speed Runners

1. On the Spotlight Play Report, look for runners noted as Controlling Speed.
2. If the pace projection is positive (+0.1 or more), consider a win bet.
3. If the pace projection is negative (-0.1 or less), consider a larger win bet.
4. If the Win $ROI rating is ▲▲, ▲▲▲, or ▲▲▲▲, increase your bet accordingly.
5. If the W/P $ROI rating is ▲▲, ▲▲▲, or ▲▲▲▲, increase your bet accordingly and bet win & place.
6. It’s likely you’ll be shouting “STOP THE RACE!”

How to View Speed Runners getting a Forecasted Favorable Pace

1. On the ThoroPACE Forecast Report, identify speed-favoring races: Dark Blue, Blue or Light Blue (for example – Race 2 at AQU in the image below)
2. Limit yourself to races with just one “likely leader”
3. Using your preferred pace handicapping methods and/or past performances:
   • If the race is Dark Blue, and the ThoroPACE Likely Leader has the highest early pace figure, consider betting this winner to win
   • if the race is Blue, and the ThoroPACE Likely Leader has an early pace figure advantage relative to the likely tracker, (TimeformUS figure with 5 point advantage as an example), consider betting this winner to win
   • if the race is Light Blue, and the ThoroPACE Likely Leader has a significant early pace figure advantage relative to the likely tracker, (TimeformUS figure with 10 point advantage as an example), consider betting this winner to win
4. It’s likely you’ll be shouting “STOP THE RACE!”

How to View Stretch Runners getting a Forecasted Favorable Pace

1. On the Spotlight Play Report, look for runners noted as Stretch Runner Getting Hotter Pace.
2. Consider a win & place bet
3. If the W/P $ROI rating is ▲▲, ▲▲▲, or ▲▲▲▲, increase your bet accordingly
4. If the ThoroPACE Forecast is Light Red, Red or Dark Red, increase accordingly (for example – Race 9 at AQU in the image below)
5. It’s likely you’ll be shouting “GET UP, GET UP!”

How to View Runners getting a Better Post Position

1. On the Spotlight Play Report, look for runners noted as Better Post Today.
2. Consider a win bet
3. If the Win $ROI rating is ▲▲, ▲▲▲, or ▲▲▲▲, increase your bet accordingly.
4. If the W/P $ROI rating is ▲▲, ▲▲▲, or ▲▲▲▲, increase your bet accordingly and bet win & place.

How to View the Vertical Value Spotlight Plays

1. On the Spotlight Play Report, look for runners with ▲▲, ▲▲▲, or ▲▲▲▲ listed under Vertical Value
2. Include the runner on any trifecta or superfecta you’re playing. The more up arrows, the better

How to View the Horizontal Value Spotlight Plays

1. On the Spotlight Play Report, look for runners with ▲▲, ▲▲▲, or ▲▲▲▲ listed under Horizontal Value
2. Include the runner on any Daily Double, Pick 3, Pick 4, Pick 5 or Pick 6 you’re playing. The more up arrows, the better